REFERENCE & EXPLAINERS

Guides & Research

Clear explanations of betting odds, implied probability, prediction markets, and forecast accuracy. These guides establish the fundamentals, explain the limits of market data, and provide a foundation for understanding our ongoing analysis.

01. BETTING FUNDAMENTALS

Odds & Probability

Learn how betting odds represent potential returns, how to translate odds into implied probabilities, and why an implied probability is not the same as a guaranteed outcome or a complete assessment of an event’s true likelihood.

02. EVENT MARKETS

Prediction Markets Explained

Explore how prediction markets price future events, how contract prices can be interpreted as market-implied probabilities, and why those prices may differ across platforms or change as new information arrives.

03. EVALUATION & EVIDENCE

Market Accuracy & Research

Learn how to evaluate market forecasts over time, distinguish probability from certainty, and recognize the limitations of market prices. These guides focus on evidence, methodology, and the difference between a plausible explanation and a demonstrated result.

  • How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
  • Why One Correct Prediction Doesn’t Prove Accuracy
  • How to Evaluate a Market Forecast After an Event Ends